Publishers don't decide which books
they're going to publish while sitting alone in a dark room with one little
lamp burning. It's not a secretive process and it’s not just a matter of
a singular person’s whims or personal tastes.
Rather, this initial step in the traditional publishing process – where
a book is chosen for print and its author receives an advance – is collaborative
and driven by business decisions – hopefully smart ones. At Kensington,
books are chosen for publication in an Editorial Board Meeting. At these weekly
meetings, which generally last about 1.5 hours, the entire boardroom is packed
to the limits. Sitting in the 20 or so seats around the long conference table are
the dozen editors, editorial assistants and interns, and then members from
other departments, including the Publicity Director, Marketing Director, eBook
Director, a National Accounts Sales Director and other top management, as well
as our Publisher and myself.
The purpose of the meeting is to
discuss books that have recently been acquired, as well as for the editors to pitch
the books that they would like to acquire from the new material they've
reviewed. At Kensington, editors can pitch any type of book that they
like and they’re not restricted to acquiring books for specific imprints.
In preparation for each meeting, the
editors have spent weeks reading manuscripts that have come in from agents,
option material from current authors, and even unsolicited manuscripts that are
pulled from the so-called "slush" pile. In addition to all of
this reading, a lot of background homework often takes place before the editors
present the new material that they want to acquire. The editors could be
researching past sales from a previously published author on Bookscan, the
service by Nielsen, which captures point of sale information from the bulk of
the major retailers. They could also be reviewing sales information
supplied to them by the literary agent representing the author or even looking
at sales provided by a self-published author who previously was only sold
digitally.
If the author has been previously
published, we often will run a profit and loss analysis (P&L), based on the
sales information we can obtain from Bookscan or specific accounts. We may also base a P&L on a similar type
of book that we've published in the past. Whether or not we go through this P&L
process usually depends on the level of the advance that the agent or author might
be expecting.
The P&L process involves an
intricate spreadsheet analysis where we estimate gross distribution and
projected final sales by the few remaining
large accounts. These numbers are
plotted against the variable costs of manufacturing and marketing a book.
Those costs include printing, freight, warehousing, royalties, publicity
and promotion, cooperative advertising and our overhead. The figures are
basically just estimates to see if the advance we would pay to acquire this
book makes financial sense when compared to what we hope to sell.
If we're looking at acquiring a major
author, there would most likely be a meeting with the agent (and possibly the
author) to discuss how we would work together to build this author going
forward. We would talk about our ideas for how to promote the author
through traditional means as well as through social media. We'd also discuss
what is the right format in which we should publish the book – hardcover, trade
paper or mass market – and at what price. Obviously, the higher the cost
of acquiring the book, the more in-depth analysis we perform.
The problem with the P&L process is
that it is just an estimate. We don't know what we're actually going to
be able to get accounts to buy. You can't just go into an account and say,
“I want you to take 10,000 copies of this book because that’s what I put in the
P&L.” Nor can you really predict how many copies will actually end up
selling over the life of the book.
Remember that books are primarily sold on a returnable
basis. For most paperback books, all the account has to do is remove the
front cover and send it back for full credit against their invoice. This process could happen
a month after the book comes out or five years later, but the success of a book
is generally determined by the sales from the accounts in the first eight weeks
of its life. Of course, there are a great many titles that don't sell all
that well during the first eight weeks, but go on to have great sales over the
lifetime of the book. For some reason it just takes them longer to build
and gain traction in the marketplace. However, the eight-week sell-thru
often determines how many copies the accounts will buy on the next book by this
author, since the account doesn't want to hold onto any inventory that they
don't think they can turnover quickly enough. They would rather the
publisher hold onto the inventory or have the publisher reprint the title as
needed.
Once we've looked at the numbers and done all of the analysis that we can, we discuss what platform the author might have available to promote their book. We then come up with an offer for the author or agent. In most cases when considering fiction, publishers want to acquire at least two or three books from an author so we can have a chance to build their brand and popularity.
The rapid rise of eBooks has totally
changed the traditional business model because eBook sales are non-returnable
and therefore are far more profitable, although selling at a much lower price.
In addition, the eBook royalty is substantially higher than the printed
book royalty rate. We have to add all
these factors together to come up with an offer that will hopefully make sense
for the publisher and for the author.
The editor then will take our offer to
the agent or publisher and present it to them in hopes that we can come to
terms on a publishing deal. There are often negotiations for royalty rates
and subsidiary rights such as foreign language sales, large print, audio
rights, etc. Once the offer has been presented, we sit back and wait for
a short period of time to see if the author/agent is going to accept it or shop
it around to the other publishers. Hopefully we make a strong enough case
to show them why it's the smart decision for that author to come to us.
The publishing business is a very cash
intensive business in terms of how long it takes to get a return on the initial
investment. Once we make an offer for a multi-book contract and it’s been
accepted, the publisher has to put down an agreed upon percentage of the total
value of that contract to be paid on the signing of the agreement. This
is despite the fact that the author might take a year to complete the
manuscript and it might take the publisher another year to publish the book.
Sometimes it can come down to trying to
minimize your losses while trying to build an author over a long period of
time. It’s a fairly easy process to come
up with a reasonable offer to present, but it can become an extremely
complicated effort to make sure that we hit our projections. Nobody
can ever claim that publishing is an easy business or high margin enterprise.
I wish more authors understood this acquisition process. As our Intrigue Publishing is far smaller than Kensington, every decision could make or break the press. We have been forced to turn down books we thought were great, because we were not confident we could market them well enough to make them profitable. We also must consider the author: will this person work well on radio, is he or she social media savvy, do they have a strong platform to exploit? Does this title lend itself to a series that might build an audience over time? Will it enhance the line, and our brand?
ReplyDeleteGenerally, all the author knows at the end of the process is, "no thank you" or "Here's our offer."
Thanks for your comment Austin. Even with Kensington's size.....we're a large "small" publisher and if we make a major investment in an author that bombs, it will hurt us substantially as well. I'd prefer to buy a successful author with a track record any time over taking a big long shot on a one time book that might make it big.
ReplyDeleteWe also always look at what platform the author might have to help contribute to their sales. It all counts.
With Lyrical Press now a part of Kensington's family, I had the pleasure of sitting in on an editorial meeting. The passion the editors have for both their authors and the books they work with was electrifying. I felt extremely privileged to sit among Kensington's staff as they discussed all the amazing possibilities for their upcoming titles.
ReplyDeleteIt was a truly remarkable experience.